Oscar Predictions 2010

Okay, well, here's my 2 cents on the topic. I'll share my (long-winded) opinions, then predict who I think will win, and who I want to win--they're the same sometimes, but not always. I welcome opinions, please!

Best Picture

• Avatar
• The Blind Side
• District 9
• An Education
• The Hurt Locker
• Inglourious Basterds
• Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
• A Serious Man
• Up
• Up in the Air

At this point, I am going to be happy if anything except Avatar wins. I enjoyed it; it was fine; beautiful visuals; great special effects. But in no way, shape, or form does it deserve to be Best Picture. The story was crap and not nearly as clever as it thinks, the directing was mediocre at best, and once this 3D technology is implemented on films across the board, Avatar just won't be able to hold any water. If a sci-fi picture were to win, I would want it to be District 9 because it is every bit as smart as it thinks it is, in addition to being well-made and well-acted.

Of course, right now the tide of favor has turned to The Hurt Locker, which, I'll be honest, I wasn't too impressed by, either. It was fine--certainly a lot better than most Iraq war movies--but it didn't blow me away. And I just realized I lied--I would not be okay if either The Blind Side or A Serious Man wins. I hated A Serious Man so fiercely that I couldn't even bring myself to finish it; and there is nothing remarkable about The Blind Side except that Sandra Bullock proved she could act. Its inclusion in the Best Picture category affirmed all the fears anyone had about opening up the nominations to 10 again.


What I Think Will Win: The Hurt Locker or Avatar (I admit, I'm being a pessimist about that).
What I Want to Win: My heart is with Precious or, curiously enough, Inglourious Basterds. I did NOT think I would like that one, but here we go. I love that Up was nominated, but it won't win Best Picture, and both Up in the Air and An Education were really very solid films that I loved, but not enough to say that either was the Best Picture this year.

Best Actor

• Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart)
• George Clooney (Up in the Air)
• Colin Firth (A Single Man)
• Morgan Freeman (Invictus)
• Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker)

By all accounts, Jeff Bridges has this category locked up, but I have to say that this category is filled with a lot of good performances this year. But I think we can count Morgan Freeman and Colin Firth out because Invictus and A Single Man, respectively, just didn't get enough buzz as the rest. George Clooney gives a solid performance playing himself (which is harder than you think) in Up in the Air, and I have no complaints about Jeremy Renner, either, but those roles aren't very "showy," if you know what I mean. Jeff Bridges, on the other hand, had a role where he can say, "Look! I transformed myself and subsumed a character so different from my own!" And that sort of performance will outshine subtlety just about every time.

What I Think Will Win: Jeff Bridges
What I Want to Win: Jeff Bridges or Morgan Freeman--what can I say? My love for the man knows no bounds.

Best Supporting Actor

• Matt Damon (Invictus)
• Woody Harrelson (The Messenger)
• Christopher Plummer (The Last Station)
• Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones)
• Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds)

I unfortunately never got to see The Messenger, so I can't comment on Woody Harrelson, but it doesn't matter because, again, I think Christoph Waltz has this one sealed. I love Matt Damon, and I think he will get his acting award one day, and his South African accent was spot on, but Invictus just didn't get enough buzz. I love it when seasoned actors get their first nominations in old age, but Christopher Plummer's role was meant as Oscar-bait and nothing more. I'm also amused when good actors get nominated for bad movies, but I still love you, Stanley Tucci. That just leaves Christoph Waltz!

What I Think Will Win: Christoph Waltz
What I Want to Win: Christoph Waltz

Best Actress

• Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side)
• Hellen Mirren (The Last Station)
• Carey Mulligan (An Education)
• Gabourey Sidibe (Precious)
• Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia)

Oh boy. I'll try to keep it short on this one, but I have a LOT of things to say! I know everyone's pretty much given this award to Sandra Bullock already, and that pisses me off. As I was discussing with Cassie the other day, I will agree that she put in a hell of a performance here. After an entire career of being cast into "light" acting roles of romantic comedies and action flicks, it's refreshing that she finally got a chance to show that she really can act. However, I think Cassie has it on the nose when she says this award is more an acknowledgment that Hollywood is validating her career, rather than her performance really being the best one this year. So, no, I don't think she should win.

As for the other nominees: See my comments about Christopher Plummer and apply them to Helen Mirren (who is nonetheless lovely as always). I will expect bigger and better things from Carey Mulligan--everyone needs to go see An Education! My heart, though, is with Meryl Streep and Gabourey Sidibe. Meryl is without a doubt the greatest living actress. I could make an entire website devoted to why she's amazing. And normally these biographies roles guarantee you the award, but for one the film was slightly too far away from awards season to be fresh in everyone's mind, and secondly this whole Sandra Bullock thing had to be this year. And poor Gabourey Sidibe is getting passed up all over the place--a stunning performance from a complete newcomer! Whatever film she's in next is sure to garner her a makeup award.

What I Think Will Win: Sandra Bullock *sigh*
What I Want to Win: Meryl Streep or Gabourey Sidibe

Best Supporting Actress

• Penélope Cruz (Nine)
• Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air)
• Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart)
• Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air)
• Mo'Nique (Precious)

I am really glad that Mo'Nique has basically been given this award already because I'm pretty sure that, without her, Precious will otherwise be shut out of this awards ceremony. And all of it is well-deserved--who would have ever figured that Mo'Nique, the comedienne, could put on a performance like that? Talk about embodying a completely other persona! Vera, Maggie, and Anna all put in very solid performances as well, but nothing showy, and hence not nearly as memorable as Mo'Nique's grotesquely abusive mother. And Penélope Cruz, well...I have my own issues with Nine, but my theory about how she's nominated is that the Academy figured Mo'Nique as good as won this award already, so they might as well throw in whomever they please. I love Penélope Cruz, and she was part of the tolerable portion of Nine, but what the heck, guys?

What I Think Will Win: Mo'Nique
What I Want to Win: Mo'Nique or Anna Kendrick, just because she's SO above Twilight, and yet Kristen Stewart gets all the attention...That would put Joan Jett in her place...

Best Director

• James Cameron (Avatar)
• Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker)
• Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds)
• Lee Daniels (Precious)
• Jason Reitman (Up in the Air)

Dear Hollywood, Please don't give James Cameron this award. Besides the fact that he doesn't deserve it, he is already a stuck-up, egotistical prick, and this will only feed the flames. Love, Jenni

Really, I'd be okay with ANYONE else besides him winning.

What I Think Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow
What I Want to Win: Kathryn Bigelow or Lee Daniels. Kathryn Bigelow is only the 4th woman to be nominated in this category. Lee Daniels is only the 2nd African-American. Neither a woman nor an African-American has ever won. It's about time for one of those categories to change.

Best Documentary Feature -- I actually haven't seen any of these, so I won't even bother guessing.

• Burma VJ
• The Cove
• Food, Inc.
• The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers
• Which Way Home

Best Documentary Short -- Ditto

• China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province
• The Last Campaign of Governer Booth Gardner
• The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant
• Music by Prudence
• Rabbit à la Berlin

Best Animated Feature

• Coraline
• Fantastic Mr. Fox
• The Princess and the Frog
• The Secret of Kells
• Up

There's nothing but Up for me here. All the other ones were okay--yes, even my long awaited Princess and the Frog--but Up was just such a magical, wondrous, heartfelt, emotional experience for me that my heart belongs to it fully. Okay, I didn't see Kells, but no one has! And since Up won't get Best Picture, this will have to be its consolation prize.

What I Think Will Win: Up
What I Want to Win: Up or The Princess and the Frog

Best Foreign Language Film--Again, haven't seen any of these.

• Ajami
• The Milk of Sorrow
• Un Prophète
• El Secreto de Sus Ojos
• The White Ribbon

Best Original Screenplay

• Mark Boal (The Hurt Locker)
• Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds)
• Alessandro Camon and Oren Moverman (The Messenger)
• Joel Coen and Ethan Coen (A Serious Man)
• Bob Peterson, Pete Docter; story by Pete Docter, Bob Peterson, Tom McCarthy (Up)

I remember having a conversation with one of my colleagues about Best Picture vs. Best Screenplay (Adapted and Original), and we've come to the conclusion that, in order to see which films have actually contributed significantly to the American film canon, you need to look at the screenplay nominations, not the Best Picture ones. That being said, I will be SO pissed if A Serious Man wins! And, again, I didn't get a chance to see The Messenger, so...



What I Think Will Win: The Hurt Locker
What I Want to Win: Up or Inglourious Basterds

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell (District 9)
• Nick Hornby (An Education)
• Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche (In the Loop)
• Geoffrey Fletcher (Precious)
• Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner (Up in the Air)

The only one I didn't see here is In the Loop, but I think the rest of the nominees are all incredible candidates--all what I honestly consider the best films of 2009. This will be a hard one.

What I Think Will Win: Up in the Air
What I Want to Win: Up in the Air or Precious

Best Cinematography

• Avatar
• Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
• The Hurt Locker
• Inglourious Basterds
• The White Ribbon

These visual categories are the only ones I'd be willing to concede to Avatar because it actually deserved it. But I admit this somewhat begrudgingly.

What I Think Will Win: Avatar
What I Want to Win: Harry Potter or Inglourious Basterds

Best Art Direction

• Avatar
• The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
• Nine
• Sherlock Holmes
• The Young Victoria

I reiterate: I love it when crappy movies get Oscar nods! Sorry, Doctor Parnassus and Nine (and, to a certain extent, Sherlock Holmes). I haven't seen Young Victoria yet, but let's face it, this one is going to Avatar.

What I Think Will Win: Avatar
What I Want to Win: Avatar

Best Animated Short Film--Sorry, didn't see any of these

• French Roast
• Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty
• The Lady and the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte)
• Logorama
• A Matter of Loaf and Death

Best Live Action Short Film--Ditto.

• The Door
• Instead of Abracadabra
• Kavi
• Miracle Fish
• The New Tenants

Best Visual Effects

• Avatar
• District 9
• Star Trek

Yay for science-fiction!!! Sorry, other nominees, but Avatar has this in the bag.

What I Think Will Win: Avatar
What I Want to Win: Star Trek or District 9

Best Costume Design

• Bright Star
• Coco Before Chanel
• The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
• Nine
• The Young Victoria

I unfortunately didn't see all of these, but one thing I've learned in Oscar pools over the years: Never bet against the period piece!

What I Think Will Win: The Young Victoria
What I Want to Win: Coco Before Chanel

Best Film Editing

• Avatar
• District 9
• The Hurt Locker
• Inglourious Basterds
• Precious

Now, I'm not the best at discerning when the best editing is occurring, but I do know that shaky-camera editing is A) Very difficult and B) Tends to win awards. :-P

What I Think Will Win: The Hurt Locker
What I Want to Win: District 9

Best Sound Mixing

• Avatar
• The Hurt Locker
• Inglourious Basterds
• Star Trek
• Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

I hate it when shitty, shitty directors like Michael Bay get their movies nominated for awards because it feeds their inflated egos and makes them think they're talented. For this one and Sound Editing (next), I never have a clue what the criteria are, so it's always a guess...



What I Think Will Win: The Hurt Locker
What I Want to Win: Anything besides Transformers, but I'll say Star Trek just to have something down.

Best Sound Editing

• Avatar
• The Hurt Locker
• Inglourious Basterds
• Star Trek
• Up

See above.


What I Think Will Win: The Hurt Locker
What I Want to Win: Up. For no reason. :-)


Best Original Score

• Avatar
• Fantastic Mr. Fox
• The Hurt Locker
• Sherlock Holmes
• Up

As much as I love Up, I'm SO over Randy Newman. This, then, is also a guess.

What I Think Will Win: Avatar
What I Want to Win: Just to have something, I'll say Fantastic Mr. Fox


Best Original Song

• "Almost There" by Randy Newman (The Princess and the Frog)
• "Down in New Orleans," by Randy Newman (The Princess and the Frog)
• "Loin de Paname" by Reinhardt Wagner and Frank Thomas (Paris 36)
• "Take It All" by Maury Yeston (Nine)
• "The Weary Kind" by Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett (Crazy Heart)

See what I just said above about Randy Newman. Plus, as I've told plenty of people, I was really disappointed by the music in Princess and the Frog; to put it simply, there just wasn't a song you were singing to yourself as you were leaving. Disappointing. No one saw Paris 36, and songs from panned movies usually don't win. Plus, Crazy Heart has this award already.


What I Think Will Win: "The Weary Kind"
What I Want to Win: "The Weary Kind"


Best Makeup

• Il Divo
• Star Trek
• The Young Victoria

Unlike Costume Design, period pieces don't necessarily have this one locked. I'll go with Star Trek because it's the only one with showy makeup to make people notice.


What I Think Will Win: Star Trek
What I Want to Win: Star Trek




~The Original Fong~
**You wish you could pull off being me**

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