Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Oscar Predictions 2009

This is probably the most well-informed I've been about the films nominated for Academy Awards than I have been in quite a long time. My categories are in the same order as the printable ballot I downloaded from www.oscar.com. The ones in bold are the ones I think will win, while the ones in italics are the ones I want to win--they're not always the same!

(Note: If you're reading this via Facebook notes, the html is all screwed up, and I'm too lazy to fix it, so you have to read it through my original blog.)

ACTOR, LEADING

Richard Jenkins in “The Visitor”
Frank Langella in “Frost/Nixon”
Sean Penn in “Milk”
Brad Pitt in “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Mickey Rourke in “The Wrestler”

**I thought Sean Penn was amazing in Milk, really--he is a fabulous actor who reinvents himself in every role who acted the hell out of Harvey Milk. Plus, he was also in a film that's currently very significant politically (which makes me wonder if it would've been as successful if its release didn't happen to coincide with Prop 8), which is why I think it seals the deal for him to win. However, I really would love for Mickey Rourke to win because, seriously, who ever thought he'd be good again? And if you're raising your hand, you're lying. Honestly, I'd be good if anyone besides Brad Pitt.**

ACTOR, SUPPORTING

Josh Brolin in “Milk”
Robert Downey Jr. in “Tropic Thunder”
Philip Seymour Hoffman in “Doubt”
Heath Ledger in “The Dark Knight”
Michael Shannon in “Revolutionary Road”

**Honestly, if Heath Ledger doesn't win, I've lost all faith in the system. I'm still pissed about Dark Knight getting the shaft, but I'll get to that later. I know a lot of people are favoring Josh Brolin right now, but I honestly think his performance in Milk is slightly overrated--I like him, but he's NOT the second coming of acting! Philip Seymour Hoffman was fabulous as well, and I am just tickled the Robert Downey Jr. got nominated, both for his spectacular comeback last year AND for getting comedy some love! However, for me, it's Heath Ledger or nothing.**

ACTRESS, LEADING


Anne Hathaway in "Rachel Getting Married"
Angelina Jolie in "Changeling"
Melissa Leo in "Frozen River"
Meryl Streep in "Doubt"
Kate Winslet in "The Reader"

**The two actress categories are the tightest races this year, and are impossible for me to choose. By most accounts, it comes down to either Meryl or Kate, both of whom are acting powerhouses, and both of whom seriously deserve this award for their respective films. If you force me to choose, I would prefer that Kate won because she needs an Oscar by now, and I know that Meryl has lost more than Kate, but her career's also been longer, AND she still has 2 Oscars to go home to at the end of the night. But don't ignore the stunning performances of Anne Hathaway--coming out of nowhere to prove that she's an amazing actress!--and Melissa Leo--if you haven't even heard of Frozen River, go see it! I was so moved by the end, and I was only half-watching at the time, so you can imagine what happens when you pay full attention. I admit, Changeling is actually the ONLY film of the major nominees I haven't watched yet, but I have the DVD from Netflix here and WILL watch it before Sunday...**

ACTRESS, SUPPORTING

Amy Adams in "Doubt"
Penélope Cruz in "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
Viola Davis in "Doubt"
Taraji P. Henson in "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Marisa Tomei in "The Wrestler"

**This is the only race that really can go 5 ways. 5 fabulous performances by 5 amazing actresses. Admittedly, Taraji P. Henson was something of a stereotype in Benjamin Button, but she was still the highlight of the film for me. Everyone suddenly seems to be picking Penélope Cruz to win, but my money is still on Viola Davis in Doubt. She may have only been in the film, what, 12 minutes? But I'll put it to you this way: Not many people can be alone in a scene with Meryl Streep and live to tell the tale, let alone arguably outdo her. I would also personally love for Amy Adams to win. She also gave a stellar performance in Doubt, and she's my new favorite actress, so I'd be happy for that as well.**

ANIMATED FEATURE

Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
WALL-E

**This one is basically guaranteed. I don't even know why they bothered nominating other films. Of course, WALL-E SHOULD have been nominated for best picture, but again, I'll get to that later. I wish Kung Fu Panda had a fighting chance (har har, no bad pun intended), but it had the misfortune of being released in 2008 alongside WALL-E, so what can you do?**

ART DIRECTION

Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Duchess
Revolutionary Road

**The Academy was in love with Benjamin Button this year. I didn't mind it until it got 13 Oscar nominations, about half of which it didn't deserve. I will give it credit, though, for its technical achievements--the high points of this film were the aesthetics. For that reason, and the fact that the Academy, Ben Lyons, and idiots worldwide are obsessed with this film, I think it'll win. I, however, would give it to Dark Knight or Changeling. Because I'm different.**

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

**I won't get into the differences between art direction and cinematography here, but I'm choosing this for many of the same reasons as above. I realize that it's highly unlikely for 1 film to receive 2 awards in similar categories, but I've made my choice. However, I'd prefer for either Slumdog or Dark Knight to get it, and between those 2 I much preferred the camera work in Slumdog.**

COSTUME DESIGN

Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Duchess
Milk
Revolutionary Road

**Granted, I haven't seen The Duchess, and I wanted to kill myself during Australia, but I pegged Benjamin Button and Revolutionary Road for 2 reasons: #1 As I mentioned, everyone loves Benjamin Button; and #2 The Academy will feel like they have to throw Revolutionary Road a bone for something, since they didn't nominate it for any top awards except Supporting Actor. I chose Australia, however, even though I wanted to die in that (seemingly) 12-hour "epic" because I've always loved his aesthetic.**

DIRECTING

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Frost/Nixon"
Milk"
The Reader"
Slumdog Millionaire"

**I'm choosing Danny Boyle simply for the reason that I loved
Slumdog, and I thought he did a marvelous job with it. Add to that the fact that he already won the BAFTA and Golden Globe for it (I could have sworn he won the DGA as well, but apparently I was mistaken), and it seems a pretty sure bet. I just don't want Ron Howard to win it. As I discussed with someone the other day, Ron Howard makes good movies. Good. Not bad. But not great. Just good. I think he peaked at A Beautiful Mind, and that was the end of that.**

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE-- I ACTUALLY HAVEN'T SEEN ANY OF THESE, SO I WON'T EVEN BOTHER. HERE ARE THE NOMINEES FOR YOUR READING PLEASURE. :-P

The Betrayal (Nerakhoon)
Encounters at the End of the World
The Garden
Man on Wire
Trouble the Water

DOCUMENTARY SHORT--SAME STORY HERE.

The Conscience of Nhem En
The Final Inch
Smile Pinki
The Witness - From the Balcony of Room 306

FILM EDITING

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

**I realize that I'm pretty much sending Frost/Nixon home with nothing, and while I liked the film, I honestly don't think it's that strong of a contender in anything it's nominated in, so there you have it. Great camera work necessitates a great editor to put it together, hence my choices.**

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM--I HAVEN'T SEEN ANY OF THESE EITHER, THOUGH I'VE HEARD A LOT ABOUT THE CLASS AND WALTZ WITH BASHIR, SO I WON'T BE SURPRISED IF EITHER OF THOSE WIN.

The Baader Meinhof Complex
The Class
Departures
Revanche
Waltz with Bashir

MAKEUP

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Hellboy II: The Golden Army
**I'll be perfectly honest--I don't want Benjamin Button to win the 4 awards I've projected for it because it's OVERRATED. Nonetheless, I begrudgingly have to admit that the makeup in it was freaking fabulous. Though I would bet that if Dark Knight didn't do that awful CGI job on Harvey Dent, they would have this one in the bag.**

ORIGINAL SCORE

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Defiance
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E

**I loved all the music in Slumdog, both the songs with words and the score. I think it definitely deserves this award. I also loved the score to WALL-E (and WALL-E in general), but it's easy to miss when there's so much animated awesomeness on which to focus.**

ORIGINAL SONG

Down to Earth” from “WALL-E”
Jai Ho” from “Slumdog Millionaire”
O Saya” from “Slumdog Millionaire”

**I still want to know, where is Bruce Springsteen's "The Wrestler"??? I honestly don't think I've ever heard a song better matched to its film...Putting that aside, I think all these songs are great. I picked "Down to Earth" for the same reason that (as much as I thought it deserved it) "Falling Slowly" from Once won over all those songs from Enchanted last year--Vote splitting. It happened with Dreamgirls, too, and you'd think the studios would've learned by now not to submit multiple songs. Not to diss WALL-E or anything, but that's the truth..."**

BEST PICTURE

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

**
I will murder someone if Benjamin Button wins, I swear I'll do it! Everyone is dissing Slumdog now that it's the favorite. But I'm with Roger Ebert on this one: Slumdog will win simply because it's a very enjoyable film, certainly the most enjoyable of this list. Which is, if I can get on my soap box for a second, composed of primarily the WRONG films. Here's what my list would look like:

  • "The Dark Knight"
  • "WALL-E"
  • "Slumdog Millionaire"
  • "Doubt"
  • "Rachel Getting Married"
I suppose I won't bore you now with the reasons why. But THAT would be a Best Picture race!**

SHORT FILM, ANIMATED

La Maison en Petits Cubes
Lavatory - Lovestory
Oktapodi
Presto
This Way Up

**I actually HAVE seen all of these, so I can make a guess! For me, Presto--the short shown before WALL-E--was my favorite Pixar short ever, and I think just about anything animated associated with WALL-E has it in the bag. I will, however, admit that the British short This Way Up was also absolutely HYSTERICAL, so if they manage to pull off the upset I could understand.**

SHORT FILM, LIVE ACTION

Auf der Strecke (On the Line)
Manon on the Asphalt
New Boy
The Pig
Spielzeugland (Toyland)

**Yep, I saw all of these, too! I think Manon on the Asphalt (a retrospective on a woman's life from her point of view as she lies dying on the street) from France will win not because it's more well-made than the rest (Make no mistake, it IS well-made, I just feel these were all pretty strong entries), but because there's a little bit of sex and nudity in it, and that of course means it's cutting edge and progressive and all that rubbish, so that's why I think it will win. If the Academy has a sense of humor, though, I think they'd pick The Pig (the fight of an elderly hospital patient to get back the painting of a pig in his hospital room) from Denmark. If Spielzeugland (Toyland) from Germany wins, well, it's a sentimental win because its subject is the Holocaust.**

SOUND EDITING

The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E
Wanted

**I know I'm out of my mind for choosing 2 comic book films for this, but I honestly don't know whom to pick, so I just chose the 2 I liked the best. And I never saw Wanted.**

SOUND MIXING

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E
Wanted

**See above**

VISUAL EFFECTS

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man

**I'm fairly certain I've made my opinion on Benjamin Button quite clear. Besides that, however, come on, you can't tell me you weren't just a little impressed by the special effects in last summer's comic movie blockbusters?? Not even a bit??? Liar.**

SCREENPLAY, ADAPTED

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

**I am 100% serious, I will lose ALL faith in the system if Benjamin Button wins this one because even the friends of mine who are also in love with Benjamin Button admit that the script is the weakest part of the film. I suggest you read Roger Ebert's review of the film to get the best articulated reasons why. I've heard that Slumdog is significantly different from the book, but I think it will win because of all the love being poured onto it. I really want Doubt to win, though, because I thought it perfectly captured the spirit of the play and made a beautiful transition to film. And maybe this will make up for it getting shafted for Best Picture.**

SCREENPLAY, ORIGINAL

Frozen River
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Milk
WALL-E

**I'm going with Milk because of the statement that it (and undoubtedly the writers) will make if it wins. Not to say that it wasn't a very moving and well-written film! However, I'm really pulling for Frozen River and WALL-E, and between the 2 I would much prefer Frozen River because Courtney Hunt is one of the few women directors/screenwriters out there, and one of the few women outside of the actress categories to garner a nomination. YOU GO GIRL!**

~The Original Fong~
**You wish you could pull off being me**
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